Multi-scenario simulation analysis of cultivated land based on PLUS model—a case study of Haikou, China

Land-use changes have received increasing attention since the 1990s. Cultivated land is a vital resource with both natural and economic features. Socioeconomic development profoundly affects spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land. In turn, change also reflects socioeconomic trend. This study took Haikou City, which has highest degree urbanization in Hainan Province, as area, analyzed characteristics its resources during past 20 years rapid development, predicted future trends on this basis, to provide scientific reference for rational use sustainable Haikou. applied single land-use dynamic (SLUDD) transfer matrix explore from 2000 2020. The patch-generating simulation (PLUS) model was introduced predict patterns under different scenarios 2030. results showed that: (1) although contributed Haikou's rate over years, accompanying expansion construction caused damage resources, especially urban suburbs. Site conditions, differential benefits, radiation may be potential influencing factors leading loss peri-urban land; (2) it verified that PLUS applies prediction Haikou; (3) not only continued original zone but exposed new sites loss. Although an inevitable trend, there still hope can controlled, example, conservation scenario. three essential values maintenance security